One of the lasting misconceptions about HS2 is why it was proposed in the first place. Many still believe it was all about cutting journey times, a bonus, yes, but never the primary goal. Others rightly highlight the aim to better connect the North and South of the UK – closer to the mark. But at its heart, HS2 was always about something more fundamental, namely, capacity.
Specifically, it was designed to relieve growing pressure on the West Coast Main Line (WCML), the country’s busiest rail corridor and a vital route for passenger and freight traffic alike. That challenge remains and if anything, it’s becoming even more pressing, as highlighted by the ORR’s July rejection of open access bids on the WCML due to “insufficient capacity”[1].
And nowhere is this bottleneck more acute than the stretch north of Birmingham to Crewe, which the Department for Transport warns will reach overload by the mid-2030s.[2] Without new capacity, passengers face deteriorating regional services, constrained socio-economic growth and knock on disruption across the wider rail network.
Phase 2a of HS2 was developed to address this challenge, a new stretch of track designed to take the strain off this congested rail corridor. Crucially it was separated from the broader Phase 2 programme to allow delivery to be accelerated. So while the Government announced the cancellation of this section’s construction in 2023, the reality is more nuanced. The route remains safeguarded, the legal powers to build are still in place and a significant portion of the required land has already been acquired.
Therefore, far from being consigned to history, elements of Phase 2a in theory remain a live opportunity. But that window of opportunity is closing quickly. The deadline on compulsory land purchase powers for HS2 Phase 2a expire on 11 February 2026 – less than 7 months away. Once these powers lapse, land already secured for the scheme will begin to be sold off and with it, the groundwork for upgrading this key stretch of rail infrastructure will be dismantled. To prevent this and keep high speed rail plans in the Midlands alive, we urgently need to extend safeguarding and land acquisition powers for HS2 Phase 2a between the West Midlands and Crewe.
And political pressure is clearly building across Westminster as awareness of the WCML bottleneck grows. A recent Westminster Hall debate in the House of Commons focused squarely on the future of the line and the Transport Select Committee continues to return to this issue in their deliberations. This awareness is crucial for numerous reasons.
Ongoing infrastructure limitations
The first is to address long-standing infrastructure limitations. Getting into the nitty gritty, the Norton Bridge flyover, completed in 2016, eased some congestion north of Stafford. However, plans for a Stafford bypass to avoid a two-track bottleneck at Shugborough and the Colwich junction were shelved. Phase 2a of HS2 was meant to solve this problem. The status quo therefore leaves Stafford, one of the WCML’s most stubborn choke points, unresolved.
Legacy infrastructure, with much of the track dating back to the 19th century, further places limitations on train speeds, timetables, capacity (for freight as well as passenger services), seriously impacting day-to-day service punctuality. These are challenges that only new-build, modern infrastructure can fully address.
If constructed, the new line north of Birmingham to Crewe would be one of the most straightforward sections of HS2 to deliver. Given it would be a rural route requiring minimal tunnelling, a revised iteration (shortened and built to new standards or assembled in phases) of Phase 2a could be delivered at lower cost per mile than the original Phase 2a scheme.
Supply chain
The rail and construction industries need long-term certainty to hire workers, boost skills, and invest in resources. Uncertainty stalls productivity gains and adds to project completion costs. A clear, deliverable plan for Birmingham to Crewe would help generate high-value jobs, support UK supply chains, and provide employment and training both locally and beyond.
Regional connectivity
With Phase 2a in place, the constraints on the WCML timetable would be relieved. Improved regional connectivity would follow, underpinning economic growth in key regions where investment could be transformational, including Stoke-on-Trent, Crewe, Cheshire and Lancashire. With the Staffordshire pinch-point addressed, communities in Rugby, Nuneaton, Tamworth, Lichfield, Stafford, Stoke-on-Trent and Crewe, would also see local rail services expanded and stations that have historically been overlooked transformed and re-imagined as well-connected transport hubs.
Urgency
With the powers to deliver HS2 Phase 2a set to expire in February 2026, the Government must now make a clear decision on the future of rail infrastructure north of Birmingham to Crewe. We want to see a revised plan for HS2 Phase 2a brought to the table, scaled back as and where it should be, and delivered using the extended safeguarding and land acquisition powers already in place.
An independent study exploring design standards, phasing, and scope, including shorter versions of the original plan, should be commissioned and published without delay.
The case for new transport capacity remains as strong as ever. To the outside world, the classification of ‘Phase 1’ and ‘Phase 2a’ undoubtedly looks clunky. RAIL readers, however, will understand that a holistic approach requires consideration of the Euston-Crewe route as a whole to avoid a situation in which neither HS2 nor the WCML is properly utilised.
A decision is now needed on what version of Phase 2a is appropriate to relieve this long-standing network bottleneck; to strengthen North-South connectivity; to unlock investment, support jobs and skills; and to build a more resilient transport system fit for the future. For local stakeholders too, it would mean an end to uncertainty.
The moment has come to shift hesitation into action.
[1] Office of Rail and Road, https://www.orr.gov.uk/search-news/rail-regulator-rejects-west-coast-main-line-applications-due-insufficient-capacity
[2] National Audit Office, https://www.nao.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/hs2-update-following-cancellation-of-phase-2.pdf, p. 10
Published in October edition of Rail Professional Magazine.